A year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Feb. 24, 2022), every day is still an emotional rollercoaster for Nataliya. She listens to Ukrainian news on YouTube each night, which alternates between encouraging and discouraging segments.

The beginning of the war showcased heroic Ukrainian resistance and Russian incompetency. In recent months, the conflict has settled into a war of attrition in the eastern Donbass region with heavy fighting around the city of Bakhmut. One of Nataliya’s distant cousins was recently killed there while fighting in the Ukrainian army.

It is widely expected that once the spring muddy season dries out, Putin will launch another massive invasion akin to the initial attack in 2022. The infamous “rasputitsa” similarly hindered mobility on the Eastern Front during WWII, but there are other reasons to be skeptical that Putin will launch another grand offensive in 2023. Logistics are not particularly sexy, but they are still a major hindrance for Putin in 2023. The Russians are still reliant on a few railways for supplies and reinforcements. In addition, the Russians have had to disperse their large supply depots to avoid creating attractive targets for Ukrainian artillery. That means the Russians will probably only be able to launch several smaller attacks, if they can launch any at all. Furthermore, Russian forces seem to be running low on artillery ammunition.

The Russians have mobilized 300,000 conscripts, but with poor training, equipment, and morale their deployment seems unlikely to achieve anything aside from further bloodshed and destruction (an estimated 150,000 Russians and 100,000 Ukrainians have been killed or wounded so far). The Russians have lost huge numbers of tanks and armored vehicles (up to an estimated 1,600) but are only able to replace them by transferring equipment from other active units or pulling them from warehouses (of which only 10% might be serviceable).

On the other hand, Ukraine has received new Patriot missiles, HIMARS rockets, and modern artillery as well as 60 modern tanks from western allies (American Abrams, British Challengers, and German Leopards). However, it will take time to deliver the tanks and train crews to use them. In addition, 60 tanks would reinforce perhaps one armored brigade at most, which is enough to blunt one Russian assault or launch one counterattack but isn’t enough to turn the tide of the entire war. The conflict boils down to a contrast of Russian quantity versus Ukrainian/western quality.

Unfortunately, it appears like the war will continue for the foreseeable future since neither side seems primed to achieve decisive victory. However, I certainly hope a combination of Russian stupidity and Ukrainian resolve will lead to Putin’s complete and utter defeat (including the liberation of Crimea).

Nevertheless, life in Ukraine has reclaimed a partial sense of normalcy. Nataliya is from Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine which experienced brutal fighting at the start of the war. Although a Ukrainian counter-offensive last year pushed Russian forces out of the area, the city is still subject to sporadic missile or rocket attack. Public transportation has been restored and businesses have reopened.

Nataliya’s parents are still at their home on the outskirts of Kharkiv and are still making the best of the situation. Her father can go fishing again, and her mother Iryna has resumed painting. We have been extremely fortunate that everyone is still healthy and safe. Normally, Nataliya and her son Alex would visit relatives in Ukraine each summer, but, if the war remains somewhat contained in the Donbass region, she might consider meeting her parents in Poland.

Nataliya’s brother Michael fled to Israel with his family last summer. They are adjusting to life in a small town (after having lived in Ukraine’s second largest city), learning Yiddish, and traveling to other parts of Israel on vacation. However, violence and tension, always simmering below the surface in Israel, have exploded in recent days.

An estimated 8 million Ukrainians have fled the fighting, but their future is uncertain since the war seems likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Eighty-one percent of Ukrainian refugees want to return home on the assumption that Ukraine eventually wins, but their host countries (mainly Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic) are struggling to accommodate them for what now seems to be a long-term basis.

The determination among the Ukrainian diaspora also remains strong. Kharkiv is Cincinnati’s sister city, and we hosted a candlelight vigil to commemorate the start of the war. It was a somber and emotional ceremony as participants named loved ones affected by the war. Mayor Aftab Purval also attended a press conference and affirmed support for Kharkiv and refugees who have fled to Cincinnati. We hope that local support continues to remain strong as long as is necessary.

A sizeable Ukrainian population had already emigrated to Cincinnati before the war, and they have organized numerous fundraisers throughout the last year. The events have collected tens of thousands of dollars as well as tons of supplies to assist Kharkiv and other Ukrainian cities. Although it may have only amounted to a few drops of relief in a sea of suffering, it felt good to do a little to help. Even if the war ended tomorrow, I would love to help host another Ukrainian food festival to showcase their delicious culinary heritage!

Unfortunately, some spineless Republicans, including our US Senator JD Vance, are arguing that we should force Ukraine to negotiate, thereby playing into Putin’s hands, rather than reaffirming our commitment to Ukraine. That’s an abrupt reversal for his earlier stance of disinterest in Ukraine. Thankfully, the Democrats still control the Senate and White House so our support for Ukraine will continue unabated for the foreseeable future. Even if the war ends in a complete Ukrainian victory, they will still require support for years to rebuild.

Don’t get me wrong, I would love for the war to end today but not because we abandon the Ukrainian struggle for freedom. I don’t want to be writing another summary a year for now, but hopefully the war will end in Ukraine’s favor. I admire the strength of all Ukrainians at home and abroad, especially Nataliya’s resolve!

Slava Ukraini! (Glory to Ukraine)